So is general election going to be round the corner this year? The last election was conducted only in 2011 and the prime minister has to call one by 2016 latest.
Netizens set the alarm bells ringing as they saw many tell-tale signs of an early election initiated by the ruling party - the big Pioneer Generation Package benefitting 450,000 seniors to buy their heart and then the damaging attack on their biggest political rival Workers' Party through the account fiasco via Aljunied town council.
There is also the Indonesian tussle with regard to the naming of the new warship after two heroes who bombed MacDonald house in 1965 which killed three people. Critics accused the government of using the incident to fan up nationalistic feelings so that the people is seen as uniting behind the country. So far it is not working as planned.
We also saw many ministers and MPs suddenly walking the ground - a vital sign that something is up as they are often quite quiet besides performing MPS.
Moreover, the Prime Minister has first started the ball rolling by calling the election còmmission to do an update on the electorate registry which by the way is a routine call.
Personally, I feel that the general election won't be held this year as there is still too much hostility on the ground due to several major slip-ups and the ruling party will do its best to further sweeten the ground to regain back lost territory before calling for one. People are still angry about the population white paper and our employment situation and infrastructure are still not in tip-top condition because of the foreign influx.
In fact, many people are worse off after the previous election due mainly to our escalating cost of living and stagnanted wages.
If the ruling party does call for a early general election this year against all odds, there is every chance that they will face a major loss to the proportion of at least two more GRCs namely East Coast and Moulmein-Kallang or Tampines if the constituencies are still being maintained and perhaps two more SMCs. The eastern part of the country is the Achilles heel of the ruling party and if more seats will to be surrendered it will come from there.
Traditionally, PAP is very dominate at the west due to the working-class electorate which can be easily manipulated through gimmicky package and threats. Despite all the talk about ungentlemanly election scheming and gerrymandering, Singaporeans are generally concerned about lift upgrading and estate management and if their housing estate is in disarray they may decide to cast their votes using their mind.
People usually vote according to current sentiments based on how their lifestyle has been the past few years after the previous election and the mind dictates who to vote for which will bring them the best benefits for another five more years.
If the person lost his job or suffer a lifestyle change due to the cause of the incumbent government policy, there is every chance that he will switch his vote and it will be difficult for him to switch back as voting can be a habitual act. There is also some fear here for voters who jump ship to the alternative party and once he has overcome those inertia, he may hold on to his courage and stick on with his choice for the next vote.
WP is still the main dominant alternative party of the people's choice and though the ruling party tried it's best to harass them through the maligned town council accounts, it will only backfire and garner them more support as people like to back a victimised hero that stood up for the country.
However, a snap election does benefit the ruling party somewhat as the opposition seems unprepared and not many are really doing much concrete currently to prepare the ground for election. A snap election will provide an element of surprise advantage to the ruling party which is very low on ground favour these days.
Gone are the days when PAP is assured of its arrogant invincibility at the polls and the talk now is how many seats will they lose if an election is being called.
My belief is the ruling party will only call for an election earliest next year as its our 50th anniversary and they may want to capitalise on the feel-good sentiments to win back lost ground. Its an election which they could not lose too much and the recent shocked loss of Punggol East has hurt them alot.
They may also need the time to convert as many new citizens as possible this year to prepare them to vote next year and we believe 80% of our new citizens will cast their votes to the hand that feed them. There is an estimated 200,000 new citizens now which comprise of at least ten percent of the total electorate. For GE 2011 there were 2.2 million voters but there is no figure released on the number of new citizen voters.
Many believe that GE 2015/6 will be a watershed one and I concur with them as after that the sheer number of new citizens who will come on board will hand a huge advantage to the incumbent rendering whatever votes for the opposition ineffective.
Nevertheless, one person may yet hold the decisive card as to when the next election will be - Lee Kuan Yew. His eventual demise may provide the impetus for the government to hold a early election probably three months after his loss to generate sympathy votes especially among those who are fence sitters.
So you see your guess is as good as mine...
Gilbert Goh