As a newbie watching Malaysia's general elections, I can't help feeling like learning to trade or invest with a new instrument or asset class. You keep wondering what you have missed and how you might have inadvertently gone wrong. This is getting into the category of the unknown unknowns.
I picked up from the WSJ story something I had felt vicariously but lacks confidence to build on. I reproduce the key paragraph here.
It's also likely that this was the cleanest election in the country's history. Over the last few years, Mr. Najib bowed to demands from the civil society group Bersih for tighter controls and monitoring. Investigations will surely follow this election, and fraud should be severely punished.
Cleanest elections they had ever had? This is probably true.
I never liked Anwar and do not trust him. So when his was the only strident voice among the leaders that the elections had been stolen (probably true) I was suspicious.
In the end Najib's story is a guy who really tried but couldn't go far enough. That's why he was personally far more popular than his party. UMNO best chance is to keep him as PM but would they have the wisdom to do that? Might they decide there is only one last last dance left and go on a final rampage to steal as much from the country as possible before fleeing abroad. That's what happened when low brains and characters are possessed by greed. Ousting Najib would be the early warning sign to this scenario.
Singapore could have made the mistake of wanting too badly to do deals with Malaysia. We have waited so long to restore and rebuild our relationship with them no thanks especially to the crafty and duplicitous Mahathir. We are at risk of over paying just like on a smaller scale SQ overpaid for Branson's Virgin and Air New Zealand. Doesn't Temasek often make this mistake too? SG government often sell ourselves cheap to outsiders and expensive to us. Truly with our government, familiarity breeds contempt. Should they be surprised that our support for them is eroding?
The issues are different but nevertheless there are parallels between the Malaysian experience and ours. E.g., PM Lee also clearly failed to go far enough with AIMgate and wrestling with the sacred cows. Like Najib today, come 2016 a PAP victory could be as good as a Pyrrhic one. We all lost in 2011. We lost in the Presidential Elections. We could lose even bigger in 2016.
Lesson: The DNA must change. Changing the packaging is not change.
*Article first appeared on http://blogging4myself.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/my-lessons-from-malaysias-ge.html