The 13th Malaysian GE produced a first - the 1st time the ruling Barisan Nasional Alliance (BN) did not garner a majority of the total votes cast. They finished with just 47.38% or slightly more than 5,200,000 votes compared to the combined opposition which polled 50.87% or 5,600,000 + votes.
The manner in which the BN and opposition parties ran their campaigns and the results would have been closely monitored here by both the ruling PAP and the various opposition parties. In fact I know that at least 1 prospective opposition candidate - Dr Vincent Wijeysingha, was there to witness the campaign and polling courtesy of the Pakatan Rakyat Alliance (PR).
Perhaps then there are some pointers for the opposition to take from this closely fought election and employ them here. Here are some of those which I think are worth considering:
1) Opposition Unity
Although the PR comprised 3 parties - the DAP, the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), 2 which of which had ideals that were basically opposed to each other (PAS and DAP), they were able to come together in a grand alliance. Yes, there were some disgruntled members of all 3 parties, unhappy over being ditched etc, that stood as candidates nonetheless (as a result allowed the BN to sneak in), they were few in number and basically admonished and abandoned by their respective parties. They are likely to face expulsion as well.
This coming together was no fluke, in fact it was already 5 years in the making, the result of the breakthrough 2008 GE. The 3 parties managed to avoid getting in each others' way when contesting and worked together to form the state Govt in 5 states - Penang. Perak, Selangor, Kelantan and Kedah. Except in the case of Kedah and the switching of alliances in Perak, all 3 parties did reasonably well in managing their states in spite of huge odds placed against it by the Federal Govt. As a result the PR retained power with an increased majority of 2/3 in Penang and Selangor, and maintained that figure in Kelantan.
How does this translate to the Singapore Opposition? Let's face it the 3 biggest parties here are the WP, the SDP and the NSP. All 3 managed to avoid multi cornered contests in 2011, but this is also primarily because none were able to put up candidates to contest in more wards, let alone all of them. However this situation might change in 2016.
In the recently concluded Punggol East by-elections, there was talk of a possible contest by the SDP in a seat where the WP had already decided to contest. The WP went on to say that they were prepared to go their own path, despite attempts by the SDP to get them to discuss the matter.
Whilst it's not wrong for any party to try and forge its own identity and not get bogged down by the disputes and differences of an alliance, it's also safe to say that it doesn't seem likely that any party will be able on its own to contest every single ward in 2016. And in the unlikely event that the opposition wins the election, then it must be in a form of an alliance.
Even if outright victory is not achieved, the likelihood is that eventually that more than 1, very possibly 3 (maybe 4 if we consider the SPP) parties will win seats in the House. Thus if the WP (or say the SDP and NSP) wins power on its' own in future elections, they will face an opposition that comprises not only the PAP but other opposition parties as well. For the PAP the matter is straight forward - it's us v them. But it won't be so for the WP.
Therefore as seen in Malaysia, that if 2 different parties (DAP and PAS) can come together or at least not get in each others' way, then it's something the WP must seriously consider. It doesn't have to form an alliance with the SDP or NSP, but it could at least meet informally and secretly without washing dirty linen in public, with them and come to some sort of arrangement not to get in each others way.
And the SDP and NSP must also take a leaf out of the MCA's playbook and allow the WP to contest in seats (which they eyed) if it's shown that the WP alone is best placed to win that seat (s). The WP on it's part must acknowledge the sacrifise made for their benefit by these parties and return the favour in some form. Whether it means letting them contest some other seats or by-elections or giving them some role in administering Town Councils. (At present only the WP and SPP have any experience in running Town Councils in this century).
With only a handful of seats in the House and no likelihood of the WP fielding and winning a plurality of seats, now is not the time to burn it's bridges with the other opposition parties.
2) Campaigning
The PR ran an efficient campaign - keeping its message simple without getting bogged down in a fight with the BN over facts and figures or statistics. Their message was essentially wealth distribution. The country has grown much in the past 2 decades but only a small % of Malaysians were seen to benefit. And these were basically those with ties to the BN.
They also rallied against corruption and the incompetence of component parties like the MCA, Gerakan and MIC in standing up to UMNO or fighting for their respective base's causes.
This is something the SDP likes to do, get bogged down by facts and figures which the PAP who have all the resources at hand, gleefully enjoy in rebutting. The NSP and WP must also not get carried away, there are only 8 or 9 days of campaigning here. Keep the message simple focus on things that voters identify with like rising HDB prices, transport costs, immigration etc and not start bombarding the voters with big numbers and issues which require in depth analysis and which can be done once elected into Parliament.
But unlike Malaysia, they cannot accuse the PAP of corruption without evidence and should avoid starting issues which they have no ability to back up with facts. Doing so would inevitably attract lawsuits and change the whole focus of the campaign onto themselves rather than the PAP.
Of course with disputes and allegations of fraud made by the PR, it's hard to really tell whether all the voters who voted in the BN did so because they were scared by the possibility of an unproven alliance managing at Federal level and decided to stick with the 'devil they know rather than one they didn't'.
The WP has repeatedly said it's not ready to form a Govt here, something not taken in very kindly by supporters of the SDP, which routinely say they are prepared to take over. I think the former's approach is the safer option, why commit and scare fence sitters with talk of running the country when you haven't proven yourselves fully by getting a credible opposition force into Parliament?
The PAP likes to talk of a 'fluke result' but the opposition parties here must assure voters that such a scenario is unlikely and even if it were to happen they would always place the interests of the country ahead of party interests. They would be prepared to work together for the common good, or even as a last resort work with the PAP to form a national coalition.
3) Alternative Information Sources
Like their counterparts in Singapore, the PR had to face a main stream media decidedly bias against them. I know I have assailed the main stream media here as being decidedly pro-PAP, but the PR had it worse in Malaysia with the media there totally blocking out any comments or ideas by them and focusing entirely in showing the BN in a positive light.
Watching the RTM news, I was shocked to see that not 1, yes not a single piece of news referred to the PR. It was BN all the way. In the papers it was filled from page to page with glowing tributes to the BN and various speeches and comments by BN leaders. The only opposition news reported were ones that showed them in a bad light.
Yet despite this, the PR won a majority of votes? Why? Perhaps it's because they have set up many smaller media outlets to carry their message and have online websites like http://www.malaysiakini.com/ that are able to take the alternative message online.
This is important because many Singaporeans know of alternative websites like TOC, the Real Singapore and TRE, however perhaps the problem with these sites is, unlike Malaysiakini, they are far too anti-PAP. I accept the argument that with the main stream media being decidedly pro-PAP, it's fair that these sites carry the other side of the coin by being pro-opposition. However if the opposition want to win over fence sitters or the silent majority, it's high time they start a site that gives balanced alternative news and skips the anti-PAP posts, to only when it's needed to be raised. The rest of the time, the arguments should be balanced, fair and give the voters the choice in determining what's right or wrong about PAP policies.
Or opposition parties could work with the TOC, TRE and the Real Singapore and get them to produce articles and highlight issues in a less strident tone. Obviously they must also assist these sites in boosting readership and getting the message across.
4) Working the Ground Early.
The last point I want to raise, is how the PR had since the end of the last GE in 2008 and until this one, worked tirelessly on the ground to remain in the public view. They didn't disappear after the elections, in fact it seems they started campaigning all over again after the results in 2008.
Their leaders and prospective candidates became known to voters early. This is something all opposition parties here must do. There are around 3 years left before the next elections. Get your people out and about all over the island. Like the WP did in knocking every single door in Aljuneid prior to 2011, do something similar, but don't overdo it.
Roughly figure out which seats you intend to contest and get your prospective candidates out there each weekend at least. Attend Parliament, read Hansard, identify the weakness of the PAP candidates you're likely to contest, know your constituency well and its problems, come up with solutions.
The battle starts now, if it hasn't already. The 8 or 9 days you're gonna have for campaigning is not enough.
Well that's it for my views on how the 13th GE can have some impact for the opposition parties. I'll finish off on Monday with one for the voting public perhaps. Enjoy your weekend and do read up a bit on the Malaysian GE - a real colourful contest it was.
Sir Nelspruit
*Article first appeared on http://anyhowhantam.blogspot.sg/2013/05/13th-malaysian-ge-lessons-for-singapore_9.html